Bengaluru: Karnataka’s monsoon deficit had widened to 30% this season as of Sunday. While the deficit is expected to widen further with farmers already watching the forecast before sowing, experts say it’s too early to call drought.According to IMD’s rainfall summary for June 1-July 5, Karnataka received 166.3mm against the normal of 238.4mm. South-interior regions recorded the highest seasonal deficit at 40%, followed by coastal Karnataka at 30%, while north-interior Karnataka is down by 13%. Several key districts, including Kodagu, Hassan, Shivamogga, and Mysuru, have received significantly less rain than normal despite intermittent heavy showers in recent days.Kodagu has received 380mm of rain against its normal of 731.1mm — a deficit of 48%. Hassan has recorded a 55% shortfall, Shivamogga 54%, Mysuru 51%, Kolar 45%, and Bengaluru Urban 28%. Along the coast, Udupi is down by 40%, Dakshina Kannada by 33%, and Uttara Kannada by 23%.The rainfall has, however, been uneven. Belagavi has recorded a 21% surplus, while Bengaluru Rural, Chikkaballapur, and Chamarajanagar have also received above-normal rainfall for the season.While farmer leaders TOI spoke to have been saying a drought-like situation turning into drought was imminent, experts point out that even though rain is unlikely to extend beyond the second week of July, considering the current situation, it would be too early to call it a drought.That is because July is the single most important month for Karnataka’s southwest monsoon, contributing around 270mm of the overall seasonal rainfall — making the coming fortnight critical to how the season’s tally eventually shapes up.One expert explained a drought declaration follows a two-stage assessment. The first stage checks two mandatory indicators: a rainfall deficit of at least 60% against the long-term average, or a continuous dry spell — a 50% deficit to normal — lasting three to four weeks during the crop-growing season. “At least one of these conditions must be met before assessment can proceed further,” said meteorologist and disaster management expert GS Srinivasa Reddy, former director of Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre.The second stage examines four impact indicators: sowing covering less than 75% of the normal area by July-end, satellite-based NDVI data showing vegetation stress, the Moisture Adequacy Index recording at least a 50% deficit, and water levels in local waterbodies, groundwater, and reservoirs falling below the 15-year average.“Once these criteria are met, they classify the severity. A moderate drought is declared when two of the four impact indicators fall below prescribed thresholds. It’s a severe drought if three or all impact indicators record adverse conditions. Therefore, it is too early to make any declaration now. We have to wait until the end of July,” Reddy said.
