NEW DELHI: The Congress has made a major move to boost its prospects in Assam as it attempts to return to power in the state after a decade. The party has fielded its state unit chief, Gaurav Gogoi, currently an MP from Jorhat, to contest his first state election from the assembly constituency of the same name.
Assam assembly elections 2026
That the grand old party is leaving no stone unturned in its bid to wrest Assam from the BJP became evident when it appointed Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to lead the candidate screening committee in the state. The candidature of Gogoi is another step in that direction.
As per Congress sources, the leadership wants him to be its chief ministerial face.But what might be the party’s strategy in fielding its incumbent state chief — and a sitting MP — in the assembly polls, and positioning him as a potential CM contender?
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What factor do you think will influence the outcome of the elections in Assam the most?
Change of political landscape in AssamFor long, the Congress had been the dominant political force in Assam. Even in its most recent stint, it secured three consecutive terms, 15 years, under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi, one of its tallest leaders in Assam and the state’s longest-serving chief minister, with a tenure lasting from 2001 to 2016. Gaurav Gogoi is his son.
Assam assembly elections 2021
In fact, when the BJP finally unseated its arch-rival and formed its first government in Assam in 2016, one of the strategists behind the victory was a former Congressman, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had joined the BJP just the previous year. Following the BJP government’s re-election five years on, Sarma was made the chief minister. His political nous has also seen him become a key architect of the saffron party’s recent dominance in the northeast.
Vote share Assam assembly elections 2021
The BJP’s rise changed Assam’s political landscape. The Congress now hopes Gaurav Gogoi can help it regain ground.Gaurav Gogoi: Congress’ most well-known face from AssamSince the demise of his father in 2020, the 43-year-old has emerged as the Congress’ most prominent face in Assam. His importance to the party is reflected in the responsibilities entrusted to him—deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha and president of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee.
Gaurav Gogoi
Gogoi has risen quickly despite being in politics for just over a decade. Born and educated in Delhi, and later in the United States, where he pursued higher studies, he began his political career by joining the grand-old party in 2014 and went on to win Assam’s Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat. He retained the seat in the 2019 general elections.Since becoming the deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, he has also led parliamentary debates on several key issues, underscoring his growing prominence within the party.Attempt to capitalise on Tarun Gogoi’s legacy?The former CM remains a towering figure in Assam, widely revered for his leadership. Popularly known as “Jana Neta” (leader of the masses), he was posthumously awarded the prestigious Padma Bhushan — India’s third-highest civilian honour — on Republic Day 2021, just two months after his passing.A Union minister under then-Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, he held Assam Congress’ leadership twice: 1986-1990 and 1996-2002.
Tarun Gogoi
The Congress has lacked strong leadership in Assam since he stepped back following the 2016 poll defeat. Now, more than five years after his death, and perhaps sensing anti-incumbency against the BJP-led government after two consecutive terms, the party appears to be placing its bets on the son.By entrusting Gaurav with state leadership and fielding him in the assembly elections, the Congress could well be banking on the father’s legacy to reclaim power.How Gaurav Gogoi’s Jorhat candidature carries weightThat Jorhat is Gogoi’s home district and his parliamentary constituency is certainly a significant advantage. In the 2024 general elections, after shifting from his Kaliabor seat, he won Jorhat by more than 1.4 lakh votes against the then-sitting BJP MP, Topon Kumar Gogoi, even as the Modi wave swept Assam for a third consecutive Lok Sabha election.Yet, the Congress’ strategy of fielding him from the Jorhat assembly is based on a different calculation.With Sarma repeatedly branding it as a party reliant on “Miyas” (migrant Muslims of Bangladeshi origin), the Congress is now seeking to shed the “Miya” vote-bank label, according to an Assam Congress leader.The leader added that Gogoi’s candidacy would also energise Congress cadres to challenge the BJP.Jorhat is a prominent upper Assam seat where indigenous tribes and communities remain a deciding factor in elections, unlike many constituencies in lower and central Assam where Muslims have a significant presence.The Muslim voteYet, a pre-poll survey indicates that the Muslim vote is likely to remain with the Congress.A January opinion poll by Vote Vibe indicated that Gogoi is the overwhelming favourite for the chief minister’s post among Muslim voters. 79% Muslims respondents expressed support for Gogoi, while only 10% backed Sarma for the post. This stands in contrast to the overall findings, where 48% of respondents supported Sarma and 42% favoured Gogoi. In 2021, too, the community had preferred the Congress-led Mahajot coalition.Out of Assam’s 35 districts, 11 have a Muslim population exceeding 50%. In 2021, the Mahajot won 35 of the 46 assembly constituencies in these districts, while the BJP-led NDA secured 11.Overall, the Mahajot won 50 seats in the 126-member assembly—in other words, 70% of its wins came from just these 11 districts.With the Muslim community comprising 34% of Assam’s population of over 3 crore, Assam has the highest proportion of Muslim residents among all states, second only to the Muslim-majority Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.Congress taking the fight to Himanta Sarma?Himanta Biswa Sarma is no ordinary former Congressman, nor is he just another politician who left the Congress for the BJP and found success there. Once a minister in the Assam government led by Tarun Gogoi, Sarma has aggressively targeted his former party since joining the BJP.However, in recent days, the Congress, too, has attacked Sarma, including releasing a “corruption chargesheet” against him and his government.Also, while he has mostly attacked Rahul Gandhi, Sarma has recently been butting heads with Gaurav Gogoi over the Congress leader’s alleged Pakistan links.By picking the younger Gogoi as its face, the Congress has signalled its intent to take Sarma head-on.In a 2021 post-poll survey by Lokniti with nearly 3,500 respondents, Gogoi came second but led Sarma, with 428 people favouring him as the next chief minister compared to 370 for Sarma, who was third. That poll was led by then-CM Sarbananda Sonowal, who led the BJP’s first government in Assam. Sonowal was moved to the Centre, where he remains a minister, with Sarma succeeding him in Dispur.No cakewalk for Congress and Gaurav GogoiWhen the Congress announced its first list of candidates—Gogoi and 41 others— the election schedule was yet to be released. By taking the lead, the Congress is clearly seeking a first-mover advantage. Sending him to contest the poll battle also underlines the party’s strategy of putting forward a high-profile leader to boost its prospects in the state.However, with the BJP well entrenched, a Congress victory is far from straightforward. With ample resources at its disposal, and banking on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Sarma, the saffron party has positioned itself to score a hat trick in Assam.The election battle is fast approaching. The voting will be held in a single phase on April 9. The counting of votes will take place on May 4.
